Here’s a icon showing changes in the share of those with jobs, from David H. Montgomery at the Minneapolis Fed, in “Who’s not working? Understanding the U.S.’s white-haired workforce” (February 27, 2023).
The 16-19 and 20-24 age groups show the biggest ripen in share of population from March 2000 to March 2022. Much of this is considering of increasing numbers of these age groups are spending increasingly time in school; in addition, they have wilt less likely to work while in school at either part-time or full-time jobs.
The age groups over 55 all have a rising share with jobs. This shift is in part improved health for older Americans, in part incentives seated to programs like Social Security to retire later, and a desire (especially among college-educated workers) to withstand the tradeoff of later retirement in mart for saving up a worthier nest egg surpassing retirement.
The mystery is the unthriving share with jobs among what government statisticians refer as “prime age” workers, between the month of 25-54. Montgomery doesn’t offer reasons for the ripen of job-holding in this group, which are frankly mysterious. This is not a short-run miracle relate to the pandemic. It is primarily rumored for by a ripen in job-holding among men. The ripen in job-holding by prime-age men has been going on for decades, so it seems unlikely that it can be rumored for by a particular law or rule change, or by the political party in power.
The plausible theories suggest that over a period of rising wage inequality, workers who finger stuck at the marrow of the wage distribution may requite up on formal work–even if they are in many cases working off-the-books. In addition, the share of sultana men who are unpartnered (that is, not married or cohabitating) is high, and single men are increasingly likely to live in the homes of their parents. The disconnectedness of these prime-age adults from the labor gravity represents a loss of economic production, but surely increasingly important, it represents a substantial group–many of whom have not left the labor force, but instead stuck it out in low-paid jobs–who are living their prime-age years with frustration and resignation relative to their earlier-in-life aspirations.
The post Changing Shares With Jobs: The Middle-Age Mystery first appeared on Conversable Economist.